Catalysts
Catalysts
Catalyst Setup
The next six months hinge on whether China's anti-involution campaign becomes enforceable polysilicon pricing policy. DAQO has the balance sheet to wait, but Q1 FY2026 proved waiting is costly because the company sold only 4,482 MT while producing 43,402 MT. The catalyst calendar is not broad; it is concentrated in policy, spot polysilicon pricing, and the next two earnings reports.
Hard-Dated Windows
High-Impact Catalysts
Signal Quality (1-5)
Days to Policy Window
Ranked Catalyst Timeline
Impact Matrix
Next 90 Days
What Would Change the View
The debate changes fastest if policy produces enforceable minimum pricing, because that moves both the earnings path and the market's confidence in book value. The second force is Q2 sales volume: DAQO can survive a temporary withholding strategy, but not a multi-quarter collapse in revenue while inventory accumulates. A buyback restart would also matter because it directly tests the bear claim that cash is trapped. If none of those happen by the next two earnings reports, the catalyst map shifts from recovery to cash-burn monitoring.